Kosovo 0–3 Romania: Result & Stats

Kosovo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Romania

D. Drăguș 82'

R. Marin 51' (pen)

D. Man 40'

9/6/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kosovo48%

×Draw25%

Romania27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosovoExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.17

Kosovo

1.63

Romania

1.17

Kosovo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kosovo

2.00

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Kosovo

0.83

Romania

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw

73%

Kosovo or Romania

75%

Draw or Romania

52%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+

25%

Romania wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals

80%

Kosovo 2+ goals

48%

Kosovo 3+ goals

22%

Romania 1+ goals

69%

Romania 2+ goals

33%

Romania 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)

64%

Romania (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Romania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Romania attack 1.50 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kosovo scores more

48%

level

25%

Romania scores more

27%

Kosovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Man

Romania · F

8.3

Match Events

40'

D. Man↳ R. Marin

49'

Dennis ManPenalty confirmed

50'

Valon Berisha

51'

R. MarinPenalty

66'

E. Krasniqi← F. Asllani

66'

Albion Rrahmani← V. Muriqi

67'

F. Muslija← V. Berisha

69'

Elvis Rexhbeçaj

76'

Nicușor Bancu

78'

F. Coman← D. Man

81'

Mërgim Vojvoda

81'

E. Sahiti← E. Zhegrova

81'

D. Rrudhani← L. Paqarada

82'

83'

83'

85'

85'

86'

A. Mitriță← N. Stanciu

86'

D. Olaru← R. Marin

90+4'

Amir Rrahmani

90+4'

Radu Drăguşin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KosovoRomania

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots15

3Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

1On Target8

8Off Target6

3Blocked1

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

447Total Passes365

365Accurate Passes278

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0