Kosovo 1–0 Moldova: Result & Stats

Kosovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moldova

Lirim Kastrati 31'

11/18/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kosovo55%

×Draw27%

Moldova18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosovoExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.71

Kosovo

1.45

Moldova

0.71

Kosovo creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.60

0.83

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kosovo

2.00

Moldova

0.60

allows per match

Kosovo

0.83

Moldova

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Moldova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw

82%

Kosovo or Moldova

73%

Draw or Moldova

45%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+

28%

Moldova wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals

77%

Kosovo 2+ goals

42%

Kosovo 3+ goals

18%

Moldova 1+ goals

51%

Moldova 2+ goals

16%

Moldova 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)

75%

Moldova (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Moldova defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Moldova attack 0.60 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kosovo scores more

55%

level

27%

Moldova scores more

18%

Kosovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Lirim Kastrati

Kosovo · M

7.6

Match Events

20'

Fidan Aliti← Amir Rrahmani

31'

Lirim Kastrati

38'

Vadim Rață← Sergiu Plătică

45+4'

Ion Nicolaescu

60'

Mihail Caimacov← Artur Ioniță

73'

Oleg Reabciuk

77'

Vedat Muriqi

80'

Florent Hadergjonaj

84'

Hekuran Kryeziu← Edon Zhegrova

85'

Ibrahim Drešević

85'

Alexandr Belousov← Danu Spătaru

89'

Armend Thaqi← Bersant Celina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KosovoMoldova

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots11

2Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target1

2Off Target9

3Blocked1

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

557Total Passes327

466Accurate Passes230

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides4