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Kosovo U19 vs US BEN Guerdane — Cup 2019

Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
US BEN Guerdane
US BEN Guerdane
A. Mida 88'
12/14/2016CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kosovo U1958%
×Draw25%
US BEN Guerdane17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo U19
1.63
US BEN Guerdane
0.75

Kosovo U19 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kosovo U19
1.75
US BEN Guerdane
1.00

allows per match

Kosovo U19
0.50
US BEN Guerdane
1.50

finishing

Kosovo U19+0.00on par
US BEN Guerdane+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo U19 ↓

US BEN Guerdane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kosovo U19 or draw
83%
Kosovo U19 or US BEN Guerdane
75%
Draw or US BEN Guerdane
42%

Winning margin

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
32%
US BEN Guerdane wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kosovo U19 1+ goals
80%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
48%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
22%
US BEN Guerdane 1+ goals
53%
US BEN Guerdane 2+ goals
17%
US BEN Guerdane 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
77%
US BEN Guerdane (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo U19 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

US BEN Guerdane away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo U19 attack 1.75 + US BEN Guerdane defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

US BEN Guerdane attack 1.00 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kosovo U19 scores more
58%
level
25%
US BEN Guerdane scores more
17%

Kosovo U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
A. Ghabbarou
88'
A. Mida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosovo U19 vs US BEN Guerdane

Kosovo U19 and US BEN Guerdane drew 1-1 in Cup on December 14, 2016.

Goals: A. Ghabbarou (79'), A. Mida (88').

The match was played at Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui in La Marsa.