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Kosovo U19 vs Esperance Tunis — Cup 2019

Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
3/15/2020CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kosovo U1925%
×Draw26%
Esperance Tunis50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo U19
0.99
Esperance Tunis
1.52

Esperance Tunis creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kosovo U19
1.67
Esperance Tunis
2.38

allows per match

Kosovo U19
0.67
Esperance Tunis
0.31

finishing

Kosovo U19+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo U19 ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kosovo U19 or draw
50%
Kosovo U19 or Esperance Tunis
74%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
75%

Winning margin

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
9%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kosovo U19 1+ goals
63%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
26%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
8%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
78%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
45%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo U19 attack 1.67 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Esperance Tunis attack 2.38 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kosovo U19 scores more
25%
level
26%
Esperance Tunis scores more
50%

Esperance Tunis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosovo U19 vs Esperance Tunis

Esperance Tunis beat Kosovo U19 2-0 in Cup on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui in La Marsa.