Kosovo U19 2–2 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Kosovo U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Esperance Tunis

Y. Belaïli 36'

M. Ben Mansour 6'

4/14/2013

League #202 · Round 14Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kosovo U1936%

×Draw29%

Esperance Tunis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kosovo U19Expected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.13

Kosovo U19

1.15

Esperance Tunis

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kosovo U19

1.29

Esperance Tunis

1.13

allows per match

Kosovo U19

1.14

Esperance Tunis

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo U19 ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kosovo U19 or draw

65%

Kosovo U19 or Esperance Tunis

71%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

64%

Winning margin

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

15%

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

68%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

32%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

11%

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

68%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

31%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo U19 attack 1.29 + Esperance Tunis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Esperance Tunis attack 1.13 + Kosovo U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kosovo U19 scores more

36%

level

29%

Esperance Tunis scores more

35%

Kosovo U19 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

36'

45+1'

50'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff