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Kosovo U17 vs Finland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Kosovo U17
Kosovo U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Finland U17
Finland U17
10/11/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kosovo U1730%
×Draw24%
Finland U1745%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo U17
1.28
Finland U17
1.61

Finland U17 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kosovo U17
0.56
Finland U17
1.67

allows per match

Kosovo U17
1.56
Finland U17
2.00

finishing

Kosovo U17+0.00on par
Finland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo U17 ↓

Finland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kosovo U17 or draw
55%
Kosovo U17 or Finland U17
76%
Draw or Finland U17
70%

Winning margin

Kosovo U17 wins by 2+
13%
Finland U17 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kosovo U17 1+ goals
72%
Kosovo U17 2+ goals
37%
Kosovo U17 3+ goals
14%
Finland U17 1+ goals
80%
Finland U17 2+ goals
48%
Finland U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kosovo U17 (draw refunded)
40%
Finland U17 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo U17 at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Finland U17 away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo U17 attack 0.56 + Finland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Finland U17 attack 1.67 + Kosovo U17 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kosovo U17 scores more
30%
level
24%
Finland U17 scores more
45%

Finland U17 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Finland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosovo U17 vs Finland U17

Kosovo U17 and Finland U17 drew 1-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.