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Kosova vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2025

Kosova
Kosova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
9/20/20251. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Sportanlage Juchhof 1 - Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kosova44%
×Draw21%
St. Gallen II34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosova
2.00
St. Gallen II
1.75

Kosova creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kosova
1.63
St. Gallen II
1.69

allows per match

Kosova
1.81
St. Gallen II
2.38

finishing

Kosova+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosova ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kosova or draw
66%
Kosova or St. Gallen II
79%
Draw or St. Gallen II
56%

Winning margin

Kosova wins by 2+
25%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kosova 1+ goals
86%
Kosova 2+ goals
59%
Kosova 3+ goals
32%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
83%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
52%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kosova (draw refunded)
56%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosova attack 1.63 + St. Gallen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.00

St. Gallen II attack 1.69 + Kosova defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kosova scores more
44%
level
21%
St. Gallen II scores more
34%

Kosova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Kosova 2–1 St. Gallen II

Kosova beat St. Gallen II 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Juchhof 1 - Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Zürich.