Kosova 1–2 Grasshopper II: Result & Stats

Kosova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Grasshopper II

5/8/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Sportanlage Juchhof R4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kosova31%

×Draw23%

Grasshopper II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosovaExpected goals in this matchGrasshopper II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.84

Kosova

1.47

Grasshopper II

1.84

Grasshopper II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

1.38

creates per match

2.31

1.38

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kosova

1.38

Grasshopper II

2.31

allows per match

Kosova

1.38

Grasshopper II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosova+0.00on par

Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosova ↓

Grasshopper II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kosova or draw

54%

Kosova or Grasshopper II

77%

Draw or Grasshopper II

69%

Winning margin

Kosova wins by 2+

14%

Grasshopper II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kosova 1+ goals

77%

Kosova 2+ goals

43%

Kosova 3+ goals

18%

Grasshopper II 1+ goals

84%

Grasshopper II 2+ goals

55%

Grasshopper II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kosova (draw refunded)

40%

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Grasshopper II away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosova attack 1.38 + Grasshopper II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Grasshopper II attack 2.31 + Kosova defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kosova scores more

31%

level

23%

Grasshopper II scores more

46%

Grasshopper II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff