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Kosova vs Freienbach — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Kosova
Kosova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Freienbach
Freienbach
3/23/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Sportanlage Juchhof 1 - Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kosova45%
×Draw23%
Freienbach32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosova
1.74
Freienbach
1.43

Kosova creates 22% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kosova
1.55
Freienbach
1.27

allows per match

Kosova
1.59
Freienbach
1.93

finishing

Kosova+0.00on par
Freienbach+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosova ↓

Freienbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kosova or draw
68%
Kosova or Freienbach
77%
Draw or Freienbach
55%

Winning margin

Kosova wins by 2+
24%
Freienbach wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kosova 1+ goals
82%
Kosova 2+ goals
52%
Kosova 3+ goals
25%
Freienbach 1+ goals
76%
Freienbach 2+ goals
42%
Freienbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kosova (draw refunded)
59%
Freienbach (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosova at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

Freienbach away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosova attack 1.55 + Freienbach defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.74

Freienbach attack 1.27 + Kosova defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kosova scores more
45%
level
23%
Freienbach scores more
32%

Kosova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Kosova 1–0 Freienbach

Kosova beat Freienbach 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Juchhof 1 - Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Zürich.