Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1–1 Irkutsk: Result & Stats

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Irkutsk

P. Kuzminov 87'

I. Yakovlev 49' (pen)

5/26/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Trud stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny37%

×Draw28%

Irkutsk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kosmos DolgoprudnyExpected goals in this matchIrkutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.23

Irkutsk

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.14

Irkutsk

1.11

allows per match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.24

Irkutsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmos Dolgoprudny ↓

Irkutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kosmos Dolgoprudny or draw

65%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny or Irkutsk

72%

Draw or Irkutsk

63%

Winning margin

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

16%

Irkutsk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

71%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

35%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

13%

Irkutsk 1+ goals

69%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

33%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

52%

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Irkutsk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.14 + Irkutsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Irkutsk attack 1.11 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more

37%

level

28%

Irkutsk scores more

35%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Khalilov

35'

E. Pozdnyakov

49'

I. YakovlevPenalty

53'

S. Alekseev

62'

E. Perevoznikov

63'

B. Kondramashin← D. Beskorovaynyi

67'

D. Oganichev← A. Putilov

67'

V. Lutashev← E. Perevoznikov

71'

A. Zhurin← E. Pozdnyakov

71'

F. Solovey← Y. Volkov

80'

S. Alekseev

80'

S. Alekseev

83'

A. Belov← S. Radostev

83'

P. Kuzminov← N. Ershov

87'

P. Kuzminov

89'

I. Yakovlev

89'

D. Molodnyakov← A. Usov

90+3'

A. Yapryntsev

Kosmos

Irkutsk

71

27

37

28

23

34

▼

Usov

19

Mashnev

70

Kalugin

69

▼

Perevozni

14

▼

Putilov

33

Yakovlev

30

3

4

97

6

▼

Pozdnyako

10

▼

Radostev

11

Masimov

12

▼

Volkov

69

▼

Ershov

99

Khalilov

14

▼

Beskorova

Manager: A. Proshin

63'▲B. Kondramashin←▼D. Beskorovaynyi

71'▲A. Zhurin←▼E. Pozdnyakov

71'▲F. Solovey←▼Y. Volkov

83'▲A. Belov←▼S. Radostev

83'▲P. Kuzminov←▼N. Ershov

Kosmos Dolgoprudny substitutes

85Nazar74Shashkov13Abramov33Bizin18Zhurin44Novruzov46Belov8Solovey9Kondramashin79Kuzminov

Manager: K. Dzutsev

67'▲D. Oganichev←▼A. Putilov

67'▲V. Lutashev←▼E. Perevoznikov

89'▲D. Molodnyakov←▼A. Usov

Irkutsk substitutes

16Tsygulev4Molodnyakov5Polorotov21Oganichev24Tolmachev11Lutashev7Lavrentiev