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Kosmonosy vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
8/12/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 2Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kosmonosy46%
×Draw21%
Velké Hamry33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
2.04
Velké Hamry
1.70

Kosmonosy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
67%
Kosmonosy or Velké Hamry
79%
Draw or Velké Hamry
54%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
26%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
87%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
60%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
33%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
82%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
51%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
58%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.04

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
46%
level
21%
Velké Hamry scores more
33%

Kosmonosy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosmonosy vs Velké Hamry

Velké Hamry beat Kosmonosy 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.