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Kosmonosy vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
6 – 3
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 10Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kosmonosy74%
×Draw14%
Sparta Kutná Hora13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
3.30
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.35

Kosmonosy creates 144% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
87%
Kosmonosy or Sparta Kutná Hora
86%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
26%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
55%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
96%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
83%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
62%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
74%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
39%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
85%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.30

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
74%
level
14%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
13%

Kosmonosy at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Kosmonosy 6–3 Sparta Kutná Hora

Kosmonosy beat Sparta Kutná Hora 6-3 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.