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Kosmonosy vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
10/22/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 12Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kosmonosy63%
×Draw17%
Sokol Libiš20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
2.80
Sokol Libiš
1.56

Kosmonosy creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.60
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.80
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
80%
Kosmonosy or Sokol Libiš
83%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
37%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
42%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
94%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
76%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
52%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
76%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.60 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Kosmonosy defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
63%
level
17%
Sokol Libiš scores more
20%

Kosmonosy at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Kosmonosy 2–2 Sokol Libiš

Kosmonosy and Sokol Libiš drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.