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Kosmonosy vs Poříčany — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
4 – 1
Poříčany
Poříčany
9/18/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 8Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kosmonosy67%
×Draw17%
Poříčany16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
2.72
Poříčany
1.27

Kosmonosy creates 114% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Poříčany
0.92

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Poříčany
2.77

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Poříčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
84%
Kosmonosy or Poříčany
83%
Draw or Poříčany
33%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
46%
Poříčany wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
93%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
75%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
50%
Poříčany 1+ goals
72%
Poříčany 2+ goals
36%
Poříčany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
81%
Poříčany (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.72

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
67%
level
17%
Poříčany scores more
16%

Kosmonosy at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosmonosy vs Poříčany

Kosmonosy beat Poříčany 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.