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Kosmonosy vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kosmonosy
Kosmonosy
FT
4 – 1
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
9/9/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 1Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kosmonosy74%
×Draw15%
Polaban Nymburk11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosmonosy
2.79
Polaban Nymburk
0.98

Kosmonosy creates 185% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kosmonosy
2.67
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Kosmonosy
1.63
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Kosmonosy+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosmonosy ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kosmonosy or draw
89%
Kosmonosy or Polaban Nymburk
85%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
26%

Winning margin

Kosmonosy wins by 2+
54%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kosmonosy 1+ goals
94%
Kosmonosy 2+ goals
76%
Kosmonosy 3+ goals
52%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
62%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
26%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kosmonosy (draw refunded)
87%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosmonosy at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosmonosy attack 2.67 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.79

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Kosmonosy defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kosmonosy scores more
74%
level
15%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
11%

Kosmonosy at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kosmonosy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kosmonosy vs Polaban Nymburk

Kosmonosy beat Polaban Nymburk 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Kosmonosy in Kosmonosy.