Kose 0–2 Maksatransport: Result & Stats | Cup

Kose

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Maksatransport

7/14/2021

Cup · 64th FinalsOru Põhikooli stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kose17%

×Draw14%

Maksatransport69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoseExpected goals in this matchMaksatransport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

4.10

Kose

2.10

Maksatransport

4.10

Maksatransport creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

3.60

4.60

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Kose

1.80

Maksatransport

3.60

allows per match

Kose

4.60

Maksatransport

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kose+0.00on par

Maksatransport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kose ↓

Maksatransport →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–46%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

70%30%

Double chance

Kose or draw

31%

Kose or Maksatransport

86%

Draw or Maksatransport

83%

Winning margin

Kose wins by 2+

Maksatransport wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Kose 1+ goals

88%

Kose 2+ goals

62%

Kose 3+ goals

35%

Maksatransport 1+ goals

98%

Maksatransport 2+ goals

90%

Maksatransport 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Kose (draw refunded)

20%

Maksatransport (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kose at home — creates 1.80, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

Maksatransport away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kose attack 1.80 + Maksatransport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Maksatransport attack 3.60 + Kose defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 4.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kose scores more

17%

level

14%

Maksatransport scores more

69%

Maksatransport at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Maksatransport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff