Kortrijk 1–3 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

SK Beveren

8/9/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 1Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kortrijk42%

×Draw25%

SK Beveren33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.36

Kortrijk

1.56

SK Beveren

1.36

Kortrijk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 48 away

1.27

creates per match

1.10

1.63

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.27

SK Beveren

1.10

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.63

SK Beveren

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

67%

Kortrijk or SK Beveren

75%

Draw or SK Beveren

58%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

21%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

79%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

46%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

21%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

74%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

39%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

56%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.63 · 117 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.27 + SK Beveren defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

SK Beveren attack 1.10 + Kortrijk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kortrijk scores more

42%

level

25%

SK Beveren scores more

33%

Kortrijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff