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Kortrijk vs RWDM — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Kortrijk
Kortrijk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
RWDM
RWDM
3/3/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 28Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kortrijk48%
×Draw23%
RWDM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kortrijk
1.77
RWDM
1.33

Kortrijk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kortrijk
1.28
RWDM
1.05

allows per match

Kortrijk
1.61
RWDM
2.26

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw
71%
Kortrijk or RWDM
77%
Draw or RWDM
52%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+
26%
RWDM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals
83%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
53%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
26%
RWDM 1+ goals
74%
RWDM 2+ goals
38%
RWDM 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)
62%
RWDM (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.61 · 119 matches

RWDM away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.28 + RWDM defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

RWDM attack 1.05 + Kortrijk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kortrijk scores more
48%
level
23%
RWDM scores more
29%

Kortrijk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kortrijk 3 – 2 RWDM

Kortrijk beat RWDM 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Guldensporenstadion in Kortrijk.