Kortrijk 0–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cercle Brugge

R. Matondo 74', 28'

12/4/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 17Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Kortrijk35%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Kortrijk

1.33

Cercle Brugge

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.18

creates per match

1.53

1.34

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.18

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.34

Cercle Brugge

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

60%

Kortrijk or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

65%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

15%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

74%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

38%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

15%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

76%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

42%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

47%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.18 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Kortrijk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kortrijk scores more

35%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

40%

Cercle Brugge at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Matondo

Cercle Brugge · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

M. Badamosi← H. Guèye

28'

37'

37'

44'

45+3'

46'

C. Vanhoutte← Leonardo Lopes

50'

Dimitar Velkovski

56'

Álex Millán← O. Deman

65'

D. Mbayo← S. Sissoko

73'

Vitinho← D. Velkovski

74'

R. Matondo↳ D. Hotič

76'

M. Fixelles← A. Palaversa

76'

B. Messaoudi← V. Torp

83'

Álex Millán

90+2'

A. Sampers← T. Somers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KortrijkCercle

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots17

7Corners4

12Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots17

1On Target5

6Off Target9

6Blocked3

6Inside Box14

7Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

388Total Passes327

240Accurate Passes187

62%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls25

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Kortrijk 0–2 Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat Kortrijk 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 4, 2021.

Goals: R. Matondo (28', 74').

Kortrijk controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Guldensporenstadion in Kortrijk.

Kortrijk vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Kortrijk 0–2 Cercle Brugge