Kortrijk 1–2 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cercle Brugge

1/23/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 21Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Kortrijk36%

×Draw26%

Cercle Brugge38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.36

Kortrijk

1.32

Cercle Brugge

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

1.14

creates per match

1.40

1.32

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.14

Cercle Brugge

1.40

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.32

Cercle Brugge

1.51

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Kortrijk-0.04on par

Cercle Brugge-0.08on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

62%

Kortrijk or Cercle Brugge

74%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

64%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

16%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

73%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

38%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

15%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

74%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

39%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

49%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.14 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cercle Brugge attack 1.40 + Kortrijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kortrijk scores more

36%

level

26%

Cercle Brugge scores more

38%

Cercle Brugge at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff