Kortrijk 1–0 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beerschot VA

10/25/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 12Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kortrijk48%

×Draw23%

Beerschot VA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.35

Kortrijk

1.78

Beerschot VA

1.35

Kortrijk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 54 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.63

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.27

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.63

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

71%

Kortrijk or Beerschot VA

77%

Draw or Beerschot VA

52%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

26%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

83%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

53%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

26%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

74%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

39%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

62%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.63 · 117 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.27 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.78

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Kortrijk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kortrijk scores more

48%

level

23%

Beerschot VA scores more

29%

Kortrijk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff