Kortrijk 5–5 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Kortrijk

1.50

Beerschot VA

1.21

Kortrijk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.09

creates per match

0.77

1.64

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.09

Beerschot VA

0.77

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.64

Beerschot VA

1.91

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.24scores more

Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

69%

Kortrijk or Beerschot VA

75%

Draw or Beerschot VA

56%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

22%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

78%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

44%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

19%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

70%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

34%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

59%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.09 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Kortrijk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kortrijk scores more

44%

level

25%

Beerschot VA scores more

31%

Kortrijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Jonckheere↳ F. Selemani

8'

F. Selemani↳ H. Guèye

28'

Yan Vorogovskiy

31'

P. Bourdin← Y. Vorogovskiy

39'

P. Bourdin↳ R. Holzhauser

43'

Ryan Sanusi

49'

R. HolzhauserPenalty

50'

T. Tissoudali

57'

I. MboyoPenalty

68'

H. Guèye↳ I. Mboyo

74'

M. Noubissi← R. Sanusi

74'

P. Bourdin

75'

J. Stojanović← M. Jonckheere

80'

M. Badamosi← H. Guèye

82'

M. Halaimia← M. Suzuki

84'

Trent Sainsbury

87'

Julien De Sart

88'

F. Frans↳ M. Halaimia

90'

Y. Van Den Bossche← M. Badamosi

90+4'

T. Sainsbury↳ J. De Sart

Statistics

KortrijkBeerschot

Overview

6Corners6

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0