Kortrijk 0–0 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS Eupen

4/8/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 32Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Kortrijk45%

×Draw24%

AS Eupen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Kortrijk

1.63

AS Eupen

1.29

Kortrijk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 99 away

1.28

creates per match

0.96

1.61

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.28

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.61

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

70%

Kortrijk or AS Eupen

76%

Draw or AS Eupen

55%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

23%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

80%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

48%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

22%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

72%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

37%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

60%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.61 · 119 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.28 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Kortrijk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kortrijk scores more

45%

level

24%

AS Eupen scores more

30%

Kortrijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff