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Korsnäs vs Gefle IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Korsnäs
Korsnäs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
6/18/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundLindvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Korsnäs23%
×Draw23%
Gefle IF53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korsnäs
1.10
Gefle IF
1.78

Gefle IF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Korsnäs
0.50
Gefle IF
0.57

allows per match

Korsnäs
3.00
Gefle IF
1.71

finishing

Korsnäs+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korsnäs ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Korsnäs or draw
47%
Korsnäs or Gefle IF
77%
Draw or Gefle IF
77%

Winning margin

Korsnäs wins by 2+
9%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Korsnäs 1+ goals
67%
Korsnäs 2+ goals
30%
Korsnäs 3+ goals
10%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
83%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
53%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Korsnäs (draw refunded)
31%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korsnäs at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korsnäs attack 0.50 + Gefle IF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gefle IF attack 0.57 + Korsnäs defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Korsnäs scores more
23%
level
23%
Gefle IF scores more
53%

Gefle IF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Korsnäs 1–0 Gefle IF

Korsnäs beat Gefle IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Lindvallen in Falun.