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Korotan Prevalje vs Zreče — 3. SNL - East 2020

Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
FT
0 – 1
Zreče
Zreče
9/26/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 6Športni park Ugasle peči

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Korotan Prevalje64%
×Draw19%
Zreče17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korotan Prevalje
2.38
Zreče
1.17

Korotan Prevalje creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.76
Zreče
1.00

allows per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.33
Zreče
3.00

finishing

Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par
Zreče+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korotan Prevalje ↓

Zreče →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Korotan Prevalje or draw
83%
Korotan Prevalje or Zreče
81%
Draw or Zreče
36%

Winning margin

Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
42%
Zreče wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
91%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
68%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
42%
Zreče 1+ goals
69%
Zreče 2+ goals
33%
Zreče 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
78%
Zreče (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korotan Prevalje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Zreče away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.76 + Zreče defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Zreče attack 1.00 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Korotan Prevalje scores more
64%
level
19%
Zreče scores more
17%

Korotan Prevalje at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Korotan Prevalje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Korotan Prevalje 0–1 Zreče

Zreče beat Korotan Prevalje 1-0 in 3. SNL - East on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park Ugasle peči in Prvalje.