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Korotan Prevalje vs Šmarje pri Jelšah — 3. SNL - East 2020

Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
FT
4 – 0
Šmarje pri Jelšah
Šmarje pri Jelšah
9/12/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 4Športni park Ugasle peči

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Korotan Prevalje64%
×Draw18%
Šmarje pri Jelšah18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korotan Prevalje
2.44
Šmarje pri Jelšah
1.23

Korotan Prevalje creates 98% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.76
Šmarje pri Jelšah
1.13

allows per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.33
Šmarje pri Jelšah
3.13

finishing

Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par
Šmarje pri Jelšah+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korotan Prevalje ↓

Šmarje pri Jelšah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Korotan Prevalje or draw
82%
Korotan Prevalje or Šmarje pri Jelšah
82%
Draw or Šmarje pri Jelšah
36%

Winning margin

Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
42%
Šmarje pri Jelšah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
91%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
70%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
43%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 1+ goals
71%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 2+ goals
35%
Šmarje pri Jelšah 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
78%
Šmarje pri Jelšah (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korotan Prevalje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Šmarje pri Jelšah away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.76 + Šmarje pri Jelšah defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.44

Šmarje pri Jelšah attack 1.13 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Korotan Prevalje scores more
64%
level
18%
Šmarje pri Jelšah scores more
18%

Korotan Prevalje at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Korotan Prevalje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - East: Korotan Prevalje 4–0 Šmarje pri Jelšah

Korotan Prevalje beat Šmarje pri Jelšah 4-0 in 3. SNL - East on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park Ugasle peči in Prvalje.