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Körösladány vs Szolnoki MAV FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
7/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Körösladány60%
×Draw20%
Szolnoki MAV FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
2.15
Szolnoki MAV FC
1.15

Körösladány creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Körösladány
2.00
Szolnoki MAV FC
0.83

allows per match

Körösladány
1.47
Szolnoki MAV FC
2.30

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
80%
Körösladány or Szolnoki MAV FC
80%
Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC
40%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
37%
Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
88%
Körösladány 2+ goals
63%
Körösladány 3+ goals
36%
Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
68%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
32%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
75%
Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Körösladány defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Körösladány scores more
60%
level
20%
Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
20%

Körösladány at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Körösladány will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Körösladány 3–1 Szolnoki MAV FC

Körösladány beat Szolnoki MAV FC 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.