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Körösladány vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
9/9/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 7Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Körösladány50%
×Draw23%
Kecskeméti TE II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
1.81
Kecskeméti TE II
1.29

Körösladány creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Körösladány
2.00
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

Körösladány
1.47
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
73%
Körösladány or Kecskeméti TE II
77%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
50%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
27%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
84%
Körösladány 2+ goals
54%
Körösladány 3+ goals
27%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
72%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
37%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
64%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Körösladány defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Körösladány scores more
50%
level
23%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
27%

Körösladány at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Körösladány will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Körösladány 3–2 Kecskeméti TE II

Körösladány beat Kecskeméti TE II 3-2 in NB III - Southeast on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.