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Körösladány vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Northwest 2019

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
0 – 5
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
4/14/2021NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 29Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Körösladány35%
×Draw23%
Hódmezővásárhely43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
1.61
Hódmezővásárhely
1.80

Hódmezővásárhely creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Körösladány
1.58
Hódmezővásárhely
1.56

allows per match

Körösladány
2.05
Hódmezővásárhely
1.64

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
57%
Körösladány or Hódmezővásárhely
77%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
65%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
17%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
80%
Körösladány 2+ goals
48%
Körösladány 3+ goals
22%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
83%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
54%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
45%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 1.58 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.56 + Körösladány defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Körösladány scores more
35%
level
23%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
43%

Hódmezővásárhely at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Körösladány vs Hódmezővásárhely

Hódmezővásárhely beat Körösladány 5-0 in NB III - Northwest on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.