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Körösladány vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
3/10/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 19Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Körösladány65%
×Draw18%
Cegledi VSE18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
2.60
Cegledi VSE
1.30

Körösladány creates 100% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Körösladány
2.00
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

Körösladány
1.47
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
82%
Körösladány or Cegledi VSE
82%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
35%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
44%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
92%
Körösladány 2+ goals
73%
Körösladány 3+ goals
47%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
73%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
37%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
79%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Körösladány defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Körösladány scores more
65%
level
18%
Cegledi VSE scores more
18%

Körösladány at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Körösladány will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Körösladány 3–1 Cegledi VSE

Körösladány beat Cegledi VSE 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.