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Körösladány vs Bekescsaba 1912 — NB III - Southeast 2023

Körösladány
Körösladány
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
5/19/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 29Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Körösladány24%
×Draw22%
Bekescsaba 191254%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Körösladány
1.27
Bekescsaba 1912
2.00

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Körösladány
2.00
Bekescsaba 1912
2.53

allows per match

Körösladány
1.47
Bekescsaba 1912
0.53

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par
Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Bekescsaba 1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw
46%
Körösladány or Bekescsaba 1912
78%
Draw or Bekescsaba 1912
76%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+
10%
Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals
72%
Körösladány 2+ goals
36%
Körösladány 3+ goals
14%
Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
86%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
59%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)
31%
Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Bekescsaba 1912 away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 2.00 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 2.53 + Körösladány defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Körösladány scores more
24%
level
22%
Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
54%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Körösladány 1–5 Bekescsaba 1912

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Körösladány 5-1 in NB III - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Körösladány Sporttelep in Körösladány.