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Korona Rzeszow vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
FT
1 – 0
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
10/6/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Crasnovia Krasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow38%
×Draw23%
Sokół Sieniawa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Rzeszow
1.65
Sokół Sieniawa
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow
1.24
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow
2.12
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw
60%
Korona Rzeszow or Sokół Sieniawa
77%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
62%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
19%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
81%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
49%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
49%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more
38%
level
23%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
40%

Sokół Sieniawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Korona Rzeszow 1–0 Sokół Sieniawa

Korona Rzeszow beat Sokół Sieniawa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Crasnovia Krasne in Krasne.