Korona Rzeszow 0–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Korona Rzeszow

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

4/23/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Crasnovia Krasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow27%

×Draw23%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona RzeszowExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.83

Korona Rzeszow

1.27

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.83

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

1.24

creates per match

1.53

2.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow

1.24

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow

2.12

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw

50%

Korona Rzeszow or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

77%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

73%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+

11%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals

72%

Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals

36%

Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals

14%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

84%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

54%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)

35%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more

27%

level

23%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

50%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff