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Korona Rzeszow vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
FT
2 – 2
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow30%
×Draw23%
Podhale Nowy Targ47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Rzeszow
1.36
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.75

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow
1.24
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow
2.12
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw
53%
Korona Rzeszow or Podhale Nowy Targ
77%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
70%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
13%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
74%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
39%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
16%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
83%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
52%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
39%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more
30%
level
23%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
47%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Korona Rzeszow 2–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Korona Rzeszow and Podhale Nowy Targ drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.