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Korona Kielce vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
FT
0 – 0
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Korona Kielce46%
×Draw31%
Sturm Graz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.17
Sturm Graz
0.73

Korona Kielce creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.13
Sturm Graz
0.60

allows per match

Korona Kielce
0.87
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
77%
Korona Kielce or Sturm Graz
69%
Draw or Sturm Graz
54%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
20%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
69%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
33%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
11%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
52%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
17%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
67%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.13 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + Korona Kielce defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
46%
level
31%
Sturm Graz scores more
23%

Korona Kielce at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce vs Sturm Graz

Korona Kielce and Sturm Graz drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Titanic Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.