Korona Kielce 1–0 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stal Mielec

B. Kwiecień 43'

4/6/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 27Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Korona Kielce47%

×Draw24%

Stal Mielec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.31

Korona Kielce

1.71

Stal Mielec

1.31

Korona Kielce creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.41

1.22

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.67

Stal Mielec

1.41

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.22

Stal Mielec

1.76

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.19scores less

Stal Mielec-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

71%

Korona Kielce or Stal Mielec

76%

Draw or Stal Mielec

53%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

25%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

82%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

51%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

24%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

73%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

38%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

61%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 33 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.67 + Stal Mielec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stal Mielec attack 1.41 + Korona Kielce defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

47%

level

24%

Stal Mielec scores more

29%

Korona Kielce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

B. Kwiecień

Korona Kielce · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

D. Takáč← M. Trojak

43'

B. Kwiecień↳ D. Błanik

45+5'

45'

45'

48'

54'

56'

I. Strzałek← K. Hinokio

61'

D. Trejo← J. Konstantyn

61'

M. Godinho← D. Błanik

61'

K. Meriluoto← M. Guillaumier

62'

Ł. Gerstenstein← A. Jaunzems

62'

K. Wołkowicz← K. Getinger

73'

Yoav Hofmeister

73'

Yoav Hofmeister

74'

Jacek Podgórski

77'

J. Łukowski← J. Podgórski

77'

M. Briceag← B. Kwiecień

83'

Krzysztof Wołkowicz

83'

I. Gheorghe← P. Wlazło

90'

Jakub Łukowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoronaStal

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots11

4Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target0

2Off Target7

5Blocked4

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

266Total Passes364

170Accurate Passes267

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Discipline

17Fouls17

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec

Korona Kielce beat Stal Mielec 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 6, 2024.

Goals: B. Kwiecień (43').

Stal Mielec controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Suzuki Arena in Kielce.

Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Korona Kielce vs Stal Mielec