Korona Kielce 0–0 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

11/9/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Korona Kielce44%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.42

Korona Kielce

1.71

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

Korona Kielce creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.62

1.22

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.67

Lechia Gdansk

1.62

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.22

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.19scores less

Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

68%

Korona Kielce or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

56%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

23%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

82%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

51%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

24%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

41%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

58%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 33 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.67 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Korona Kielce defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

44%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

32%

Korona Kielce at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

B. Sarnavskyi

Lechia Gdansk · G

8.2

Match Events

56'

Miłosz Trojak

62'

D. Błanik← W. Długosz

64'

Rifet Kapić

71'

Martin Remacle

71'

Bogdan Viunnyk

73'

K. Sezonienko← B. Viunnyk

76'

Kacper Sezonienko

76'

Pedro Nuno← M. Fornalczyk

78'

L. D'Arrigo← T. Neugebauer

83'

Adrián Dalmau← E. Shikavka

83'

M. Strzeboński← M. Remacle

86'

Miłosz Kałahur

87'

K. Wendt← A. Tsarenko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoronaLechia

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots6

2.98Expected Goals (xG)0.31

6Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots6

4On Target0

8Off Target4

6Blocked2

18Inside Box1

0Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

394Total Passes430

319Accurate Passes360

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0