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Korona Kielce vs Dynamo Kyiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
1/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Korona Kielce35%
×Draw24%
Dynamo Kyiv41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.51
Dynamo Kyiv
1.66

Dynamo Kyiv creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.13
Dynamo Kyiv
2.44

allows per match

Korona Kielce
0.87
Dynamo Kyiv
1.89

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
59%
Korona Kielce or Dynamo Kyiv
76%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
65%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
17%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
78%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
44%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
19%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
46%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.13 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Korona Kielce defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
35%
level
24%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
41%

Dynamo Kyiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Korona Kielce 0–0 Dynamo Kyiv

Korona Kielce and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2026.