Korona Kielce U19 1–2 Zagłębie Lubin U19

Korona Kielce U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zagłębie Lubin U19

4/8/2023

Central Youth League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korona Kielce U1938%

×Draw22%

Zagłębie Lubin U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona Kielce U19Expected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.81

Korona Kielce U19

1.75

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 53 away

2.04

creates per match

1.79

1.83

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Korona Kielce U19

2.04

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.79

allows per match

Korona Kielce U19

1.83

Zagłębie Lubin U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U19 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U19 or draw

60%

Korona Kielce U19 or Zagłębie Lubin U19

78%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U19

62%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+

19%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals

83%

Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals

52%

Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals

25%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 1+ goals

84%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 2+ goals

54%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U19 attack 2.04 + Zagłębie Lubin U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zagłębie Lubin U19 attack 1.79 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korona Kielce U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 scores more

40%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff