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Korona Kielce U19 vs Escola Varsovia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Escola Varsovia U19
Escola Varsovia U19
3/29/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korona Kielce U1946%
×Draw22%
Escola Varsovia U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce U19
2.00
Escola Varsovia U19
1.68

Korona Kielce U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce U19
2.04
Escola Varsovia U19
1.53

allows per match

Korona Kielce U19
1.83
Escola Varsovia U19
1.95

finishing

Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par
Escola Varsovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U19 ↓

Escola Varsovia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U19 or draw
67%
Korona Kielce U19 or Escola Varsovia U19
78%
Draw or Escola Varsovia U19
54%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
26%
Escola Varsovia U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
86%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
59%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
32%
Escola Varsovia U19 1+ goals
81%
Escola Varsovia U19 2+ goals
50%
Escola Varsovia U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Escola Varsovia U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Escola Varsovia U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U19 attack 2.04 + Escola Varsovia U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.00

Escola Varsovia U19 attack 1.53 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Korona Kielce U19 scores more
46%
level
22%
Escola Varsovia U19 scores more
33%

Korona Kielce U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korona Kielce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce U19 vs Escola Varsovia U19

Korona Kielce U19 beat Escola Varsovia U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on March 29, 2023.