Korona Kielce U18 3–1 Wisła Kraków U18

Korona Kielce U18

FT

3 – 1

Wisła Kraków U18

4/25/2021

Central Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Korona Kielce U1835%

×Draw21%

Wisła Kraków U1844%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona Kielce U18Expected goals in this matchWisła Kraków U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.99

Korona Kielce U18

1.75

Wisła Kraków U18

1.99

Wisła Kraków U18 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

2.24

1.73

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Korona Kielce U18

1.82

Wisła Kraków U18

2.24

allows per match

Korona Kielce U18

1.73

Wisła Kraków U18

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U18 ↓

Wisła Kraków U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U18 or draw

56%

Korona Kielce U18 or Wisła Kraków U18

79%

Draw or Wisła Kraków U18

65%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+

17%

Wisła Kraków U18 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals

83%

Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals

52%

Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals

25%

Wisła Kraków U18 1+ goals

86%

Wisła Kraków U18 2+ goals

59%

Wisła Kraków U18 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)

44%

Wisła Kraków U18 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Wisła Kraków U18 away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.82 + Wisła Kraków U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wisła Kraków U18 attack 2.24 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Korona Kielce U18 scores more

35%

level

21%

Wisła Kraków U18 scores more

44%

Wisła Kraków U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisła Kraków U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff