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Korona Kielce U18 vs SMS Łódź U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Korona Kielce U18
Korona Kielce U18
FT
2 – 1
SMS Łódź U18
SMS Łódź U18
11/22/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Korona Kielce U1845%
×Draw22%
SMS Łódź U1833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce U18
1.92
SMS Łódź U18
1.61

Korona Kielce U18 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce U18
1.82
SMS Łódź U18
1.50

allows per match

Korona Kielce U18
1.73
SMS Łódź U18
2.03

finishing

Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par
SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U18 ↓

SMS Łódź U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U18 or draw
67%
Korona Kielce U18 or SMS Łódź U18
78%
Draw or SMS Łódź U18
55%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+
25%
SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals
85%
Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals
57%
Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals
30%
SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals
80%
SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals
48%
SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)
58%
SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

SMS Łódź U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.82 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.50 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Korona Kielce U18 scores more
45%
level
22%
SMS Łódź U18 scores more
33%

Korona Kielce U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Korona Kielce U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce U18 vs SMS Łódź U18

Korona Kielce U18 beat SMS Łódź U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on November 22, 2020.