Korona Kielce U18 1–2 Escola Varsovia U18

Korona Kielce U18

FT

1 – 2

Escola Varsovia U18

11/8/2020

Central Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Korona Kielce U1841%

×Draw23%

Escola Varsovia U1836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona Kielce U18Expected goals in this matchEscola Varsovia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.66

Korona Kielce U18

1.77

Escola Varsovia U18

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.82

creates per match

1.59

1.73

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Korona Kielce U18

1.82

Escola Varsovia U18

1.59

allows per match

Korona Kielce U18

1.73

Escola Varsovia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par

Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U18 ↓

Escola Varsovia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U18 or draw

64%

Korona Kielce U18 or Escola Varsovia U18

77%

Draw or Escola Varsovia U18

59%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+

21%

Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals

83%

Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals

53%

Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals

26%

Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals

81%

Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals

49%

Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)

53%

Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Escola Varsovia U18 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.82 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.59 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Korona Kielce U18 scores more

41%

level

23%

Escola Varsovia U18 scores more

36%

Korona Kielce U18 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Korona Kielce U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff