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Korona Kielce U18 vs Arka Gdynia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Korona Kielce U18
Korona Kielce U18
FT
1 – 2
Arka Gdynia U18
Arka Gdynia U18
9/19/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Korona Kielce U1842%
×Draw22%
Arka Gdynia U1836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce U18
1.83
Arka Gdynia U18
1.67

Korona Kielce U18 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce U18
1.82
Arka Gdynia U18
1.61

allows per match

Korona Kielce U18
1.73
Arka Gdynia U18
1.84

finishing

Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U18 ↓

Arka Gdynia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U18 or draw
64%
Korona Kielce U18 or Arka Gdynia U18
78%
Draw or Arka Gdynia U18
58%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+
22%
Arka Gdynia U18 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals
84%
Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals
54%
Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals
28%
Arka Gdynia U18 1+ goals
81%
Arka Gdynia U18 2+ goals
50%
Arka Gdynia U18 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)
54%
Arka Gdynia U18 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U18 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Arka Gdynia U18 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.82 + Arka Gdynia U18 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Arka Gdynia U18 attack 1.61 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Korona Kielce U18 scores more
42%
level
22%
Arka Gdynia U18 scores more
36%

Korona Kielce U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Korona Kielce U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Korona Kielce U18 1–2 Arka Gdynia U18

Arka Gdynia U18 beat Korona Kielce U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on September 19, 2020.