Korona Kielce II 2–0 Wisła Sandomierz

Korona Kielce II

FT

2 – 0

Wisła Sandomierz

6/12/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 41Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Korona Kielce II55%

×Draw20%

Wisła Sandomierz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona Kielce IIExpected goals in this matchWisła Sandomierz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.40

Korona Kielce II

2.20

Wisła Sandomierz

1.40

Korona Kielce II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 54 away

2.04

creates per match

1.19

1.60

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Korona Kielce II

2.04

Wisła Sandomierz

1.19

allows per match

Korona Kielce II

1.60

Wisła Sandomierz

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw

76%

Korona Kielce II or Wisła Sandomierz

80%

Draw or Wisła Sandomierz

45%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+

34%

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals

89%

Korona Kielce II 2+ goals

64%

Korona Kielce II 3+ goals

37%

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals

75%

Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals

41%

Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)

70%

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.20

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more

55%

level

20%

Wisła Sandomierz scores more

24%

Korona Kielce II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff