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Korona Kielce II vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
4/6/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Korona Kielce II53%
×Draw21%
Wiązownica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
2.10
Wiązownica
1.43

Korona Kielce II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
74%
Korona Kielce II or Wiązownica
79%
Draw or Wiązownica
47%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
31%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
88%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
62%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
35%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
76%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
42%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
67%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.10

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
53%
level
21%
Wiązownica scores more
26%

Korona Kielce II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce II vs Wiązownica

Korona Kielce II and Wiązownica drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.