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Korona Kielce II vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
4 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
4/8/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Korona Kielce II49%
×Draw22%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
1.96
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.45

Korona Kielce II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
71%
Korona Kielce II or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
78%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
51%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
28%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
86%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
58%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
31%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
77%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
42%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
63%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
49%
level
22%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
29%

Korona Kielce II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Korona Kielce II 4–0 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Korona Kielce II beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.