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Koro vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Koro
Koro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
12/27/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro34%
×Draw29%
USC Kita36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koro
1.06
USC Kita
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Koro
1.06
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Koro
1.44
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Koro+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Koro or draw
64%
Koro or USC Kita
71%
Draw or USC Kita
66%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+
13%
USC Kita wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals
65%
Koro 2+ goals
29%
Koro 3+ goals
9%
USC Kita 1+ goals
67%
USC Kita 2+ goals
30%
USC Kita 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)
49%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Koro scores more
34%
level
29%
USC Kita scores more
36%

USC Kita at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "USC Kita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Koro 1 – 0 USC Kita

Koro beat USC Kita 1-0 in Première Division on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain ASB in Bamako.