Koro 0–1 Réal Bamako: Result & Stats

Koro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Réal Bamako

1/20/2024

Première Division · Round 14Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro26%

×Draw28%

Réal Bamako46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoroExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.29

Koro

0.90

Réal Bamako

1.29

Réal Bamako creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 99 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

1.44

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Koro

1.06

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

Koro

1.44

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koro+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Koro or draw

54%

Koro or Réal Bamako

72%

Draw or Réal Bamako

74%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+

9%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals

59%

Koro 2+ goals

23%

Koro 3+ goals

6%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

72%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

37%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)

36%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Koro scores more

26%

level

28%

Réal Bamako scores more

46%

Réal Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff