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Koro vs Onze Créateurs — Première Division 2019

Koro
Koro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
11/2/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro29%
×Draw29%
Onze Créateurs41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koro
0.96
Onze Créateurs
1.20

Onze Créateurs creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 97 away

creates per match

Koro
1.06
Onze Créateurs
0.96

allows per match

Koro
1.44
Onze Créateurs
0.86

finishing

Koro+0.00on par
Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

Onze Créateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Koro or draw
59%
Koro or Onze Créateurs
71%
Draw or Onze Créateurs
71%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+
11%
Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals
62%
Koro 2+ goals
25%
Koro 3+ goals
7%
Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
70%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
34%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)
41%
Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Koro scores more
29%
level
29%
Onze Créateurs scores more
41%

Onze Créateurs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Koro 3–0 Onze Créateurs

Koro beat Onze Créateurs 3-0 in Première Division on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta in Bamako.